Aston Villa - Formations and Players

 

        I would like to start with this blog, with these words, "The Numbers Don't Lie." Steve Bruce has used five formations this season, with varying amounts of success. He has used 26 different players with varying success. This blog will look at which formations and player selection work.

The formations used are 4411, 3421, 433, 442, and 4231. The table below looks at the formations and Points per game, Average Passing Percentage, Average Possession Percentage, Total Number of Shots, Total Number of Shot on Target, Average of Shot on Target versus Total Shots, Total Goals Scored, and finally Average Goal Conversion versus Total Shots.

Bruce has persisted with the 4411 for most of the season, and as the stats show it hasn't been overly successful. The most successful formation has been 442 after Kodjia returned from injury. The formation often seen outdated was also very successful Leicester in the Champions season in the Premier League. 

     Fans may ask how a small alteration can affect the results so drastically. The average passing and possession percentages are very similar, but that is where the similarities end. The two important stats are the conversion of shots to goals and the number of points per game. At the present rate, the 4411 formation will have the team ending the season with 66 points that would leave the club in 10th place in last years standings. The 442 formation would have the club finish on 92 points that would have been an automatic promotion spot.

      The formation has had an effect but so have players. Much as been mentioned about the numbers of Aston Villa have had this season, especially to key players. The table below shows the effect that Terry, Kodjia, and Grealish have had on results.

     Captain Marvel John Terry has been missing for the last eight games, and during that time points per game have dropped from 1.63 to 1.50. Even though it isn't a massive difference, it is the difference between 7th and 9th in last years standing. 

     The clubs star forward from last season as missed all but six games this season due to injuries. The introduction to him into the team this season alongside Keinan Davis in a 442 formation took our average points per game to 2.13 versus 1.31 when he hasn't played. This is a difference between champions form or mid-table obscurity. Much as been said about Kodjai this season, he is selfish, and he hasn't been missed, the stats don't support that and he will continue to be missed until he returns from ankle surgery. Bruce has only tried the formation once since Kodija was injured against Fulham, and that was in a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheff Wed. This was the same game where Villa was stunned by a goal wonder goal in the first minute, and Terry left the field after 20 minutes through injury. With the shortage of forwards due to further injuries to Gabby and Hogan, Bruce has resorted to his less successful 4411 formation.

     Before the season started, Bruce said he wanted to build the team around Grealish. An unfortunate kidney injury kept Grealish out of the first fifteen games. Since then, he has played six games as a substitute, and two games where he has started. Since is return to the team, Villa's points per game have dropped from 1.73 to 1.33. Bruce may need to rethink how he uses Grealish and see if he can use him in a 442 formation.

The most successful team (442)this season has been, Johnstone, Hutton, Taylor, Chester, Terry, Snodgrass, Adomah, Whelan, Hourihane, Kodija, and Davis. With a number of the players out injured, and some needing a rest maybe Bruce can use players such as Elphick, Jedinak, Grealish, Omonah, Elmo, and Hogan to fill some of the holes and move back to the succesful formation.

Injuries have played their part and seen a drop in points when key players are out. This may make Bruce look at his recruitment because no team is going to go through a season with just eleven players. He needs to make sure he has ready-made replacements.

Aston Villa - A Progress Report

The expectations at Aston Villa are high, the chairman has high expectation, “One particular task this season is to dramatically improve our away form…15+away wins!#UTV” - Dr. Tony Xia. The managers expectations are high, Why are we favorites when we finished 13th last season?” he said. “Because we are Aston Villa. It’s in the name and that’s what the club demands. So whether I have FFP or whatever, the demand is that we are there or thereabouts. We have to be. I am under no illusions about that. That’s why I came here.” – Steve Bruce. They are unexpectedly high from many Aston Villa fans due to history and past achievements.

As we a few days away from the second half of a season that most expect Aston Villa to be promoted, we will see if Steve Bruce is achieving the goals set before him and by himself.

Fifteen away wins in the season, may have been tongue in check, but have Aston Villa are a long way from those numbers, even with a improvement this season in the points to game ratio. Last season, Bruce’s team produced four wins in seventeen games, which is a 24% ratio. This season his team is cruising at 33% ratio, with four wins in twelve. To put this perspective, the two team who were automatically promoted last season, Newcastle and Brighton were at 61% and 52% respectively. The lowest percentage for a team that reached the playoffs was Sheffield Wednesday with 39%. At the present rate, Aston Villa will finish at 35% with a maximum of eight wins. We are nowhere near the fifteen wins, and not even at a rate that will take us to the playoffs.

Saying that, points per games ratio have increase dramatically from .78 last season to 1.25 per game this season. One redeeming stat from the present away form is that Aston Villa have played six teams above us away from home. The sad stat is we have only collected two points from a possible eighteen.

The Dr. words “Actually I agree with DYorke said, Championship isn’t that difficult as lots ppl described, more as a good excuse”, may come back to bite him, and Steve Bruce, who said after the Reading defeat earlier in the season “It’s a very, very difficult job.”

Are Aston Villa, “There or there about”, as Steve Bruce had said it was the reason he was here for. If we had asked that question five games ago, the answer would had been a definite “Yes”, five games on, and we are looking at “Maybe.” Three point in the last fifteen, have taken Aston Villa from a possible automatic promotion push, to hanging onto the playoff. With another away game against a team above them in the league and a home game against one of the inform teams, by the turn of the New Year, it could be a disappointing “No.”

Aston Villa have a long history that stems back to 1874, when they were one of the twelve founders of the Football League in 1888. Many trophies and championships soon followed, but in the last 30 years, the club has had to settle with two League Cup Winner trophies. With pickings being rare, and with the club in decline for the last seven years, some may say Aston Villa fans need to a bit more patient with the ownership and the present manager. Throughout the season, the fans at the ground, especially the magnificent travelling supporters have supported Steve Bruce, but after the recent defeat to Brentford, things have started to turn. Supporters chanted “Sacked in the morning”, and “You don’t know what you’re doing”, as Bruce, pondered the future with his eyes firming fixed on the ground beneath him, and not the baying fans.

       The new manager bounce fails just as it may succeed, but for a number of fans it is time to test that theory. When the Chinese year of the Dog starts on February 16^th 2018, would the Dr. have shown his loyalty to Steve Bruce, or would he have felt his bite.