Transfer Roulette

Aston Villa - Formations and Players

 

        I would like to start with this blog, with these words, "The Numbers Don't Lie." Steve Bruce has used five formations this season, with varying amounts of success. He has used 26 different players with varying success. This blog will look at which formations and player selection work.

The formations used are 4411, 3421, 433, 442, and 4231. The table below looks at the formations and Points per game, Average Passing Percentage, Average Possession Percentage, Total Number of Shots, Total Number of Shot on Target, Average of Shot on Target versus Total Shots, Total Goals Scored, and finally Average Goal Conversion versus Total Shots.

Bruce has persisted with the 4411 for most of the season, and as the stats show it hasn't been overly successful. The most successful formation has been 442 after Kodjia returned from injury. The formation often seen outdated was also very successful Leicester in the Champions season in the Premier League. 

     Fans may ask how a small alteration can affect the results so drastically. The average passing and possession percentages are very similar, but that is where the similarities end. The two important stats are the conversion of shots to goals and the number of points per game. At the present rate, the 4411 formation will have the team ending the season with 66 points that would leave the club in 10th place in last years standings. The 442 formation would have the club finish on 92 points that would have been an automatic promotion spot.

      The formation has had an effect but so have players. Much as been mentioned about the numbers of Aston Villa have had this season, especially to key players. The table below shows the effect that Terry, Kodjia, and Grealish have had on results.

     Captain Marvel John Terry has been missing for the last eight games, and during that time points per game have dropped from 1.63 to 1.50. Even though it isn't a massive difference, it is the difference between 7th and 9th in last years standing. 

     The clubs star forward from last season as missed all but six games this season due to injuries. The introduction to him into the team this season alongside Keinan Davis in a 442 formation took our average points per game to 2.13 versus 1.31 when he hasn't played. This is a difference between champions form or mid-table obscurity. Much as been said about Kodjai this season, he is selfish, and he hasn't been missed, the stats don't support that and he will continue to be missed until he returns from ankle surgery. Bruce has only tried the formation once since Kodija was injured against Fulham, and that was in a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheff Wed. This was the same game where Villa was stunned by a goal wonder goal in the first minute, and Terry left the field after 20 minutes through injury. With the shortage of forwards due to further injuries to Gabby and Hogan, Bruce has resorted to his less successful 4411 formation.

     Before the season started, Bruce said he wanted to build the team around Grealish. An unfortunate kidney injury kept Grealish out of the first fifteen games. Since then, he has played six games as a substitute, and two games where he has started. Since is return to the team, Villa's points per game have dropped from 1.73 to 1.33. Bruce may need to rethink how he uses Grealish and see if he can use him in a 442 formation.

The most successful team (442)this season has been, Johnstone, Hutton, Taylor, Chester, Terry, Snodgrass, Adomah, Whelan, Hourihane, Kodija, and Davis. With a number of the players out injured, and some needing a rest maybe Bruce can use players such as Elphick, Jedinak, Grealish, Omonah, Elmo, and Hogan to fill some of the holes and move back to the succesful formation.

Injuries have played their part and seen a drop in points when key players are out. This may make Bruce look at his recruitment because no team is going to go through a season with just eleven players. He needs to make sure he has ready-made replacements.

Aston Villa - A Progress Report

The expectations at Aston Villa are high, the chairman has high expectation, “One particular task this season is to dramatically improve our away form…15+away wins!#UTV” - Dr. Tony Xia. The managers expectations are high, Why are we favorites when we finished 13th last season?” he said. “Because we are Aston Villa. It’s in the name and that’s what the club demands. So whether I have FFP or whatever, the demand is that we are there or thereabouts. We have to be. I am under no illusions about that. That’s why I came here.” – Steve Bruce. They are unexpectedly high from many Aston Villa fans due to history and past achievements.

As we a few days away from the second half of a season that most expect Aston Villa to be promoted, we will see if Steve Bruce is achieving the goals set before him and by himself.

Fifteen away wins in the season, may have been tongue in check, but have Aston Villa are a long way from those numbers, even with a improvement this season in the points to game ratio. Last season, Bruce’s team produced four wins in seventeen games, which is a 24% ratio. This season his team is cruising at 33% ratio, with four wins in twelve. To put this perspective, the two team who were automatically promoted last season, Newcastle and Brighton were at 61% and 52% respectively. The lowest percentage for a team that reached the playoffs was Sheffield Wednesday with 39%. At the present rate, Aston Villa will finish at 35% with a maximum of eight wins. We are nowhere near the fifteen wins, and not even at a rate that will take us to the playoffs.

Saying that, points per games ratio have increase dramatically from .78 last season to 1.25 per game this season. One redeeming stat from the present away form is that Aston Villa have played six teams above us away from home. The sad stat is we have only collected two points from a possible eighteen.

The Dr. words “Actually I agree with DYorke said, Championship isn’t that difficult as lots ppl described, more as a good excuse”, may come back to bite him, and Steve Bruce, who said after the Reading defeat earlier in the season “It’s a very, very difficult job.”

Are Aston Villa, “There or there about”, as Steve Bruce had said it was the reason he was here for. If we had asked that question five games ago, the answer would had been a definite “Yes”, five games on, and we are looking at “Maybe.” Three point in the last fifteen, have taken Aston Villa from a possible automatic promotion push, to hanging onto the playoff. With another away game against a team above them in the league and a home game against one of the inform teams, by the turn of the New Year, it could be a disappointing “No.”

Aston Villa have a long history that stems back to 1874, when they were one of the twelve founders of the Football League in 1888. Many trophies and championships soon followed, but in the last 30 years, the club has had to settle with two League Cup Winner trophies. With pickings being rare, and with the club in decline for the last seven years, some may say Aston Villa fans need to a bit more patient with the ownership and the present manager. Throughout the season, the fans at the ground, especially the magnificent travelling supporters have supported Steve Bruce, but after the recent defeat to Brentford, things have started to turn. Supporters chanted “Sacked in the morning”, and “You don’t know what you’re doing”, as Bruce, pondered the future with his eyes firming fixed on the ground beneath him, and not the baying fans.

       The new manager bounce fails just as it may succeed, but for a number of fans it is time to test that theory. When the Chinese year of the Dog starts on February 16^th 2018, would the Dr. have shown his loyalty to Steve Bruce, or would he have felt his bite.

A defense for Villa

There's no Defense!

         Nobody will deny, the goals against Villa this season are going to send us down, but who is to blame? We can look around the Villa team and see areas with a lack of experience in their positions. Villa have Gana, Veretout, Ayew, Amavi, Okore, and more, but one area we have experience is defense. We look at Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Clark, and Richardson, and we have 1490 games at a Premier or Championship level. If that is the case, then why are conceding 2 goals per game in the Premier League?

         Over the years, through my coaching experience, to have a strong defense, you need a decent and vocal goalkeeper, and two well organized central defenders. One of those defenders, needs to be able read the game extremely well, and take charge of the defense. Have Villa got that?

I think Guzan has shown enough in the past, he is a very good keeper. He has made a few mistakes this year, but with such a lack of confidence in your defense, who would blame him.

         As we look at the central pairings that have been used over a number of games this season, we have:

Richards & Clark (8 games, conceding 1.75 goals per game)

Richards & Lescott (7 games, conceding 2 goals per game)

Okore & Lescott (4 games, conceding 1.25 per game)

We can say, certain pairings may have played against stronger opposition, but in the end we have to make the decision, certain pairings may just not work. I look back at the games throughout the season, and so many goals have been conceded by poor positioning, or players not attacking the ball while it's in the air. 

The two goals against Norwich, Richards wasn't close enough, and didn't challenge Howson. Richardson, marking nobody, doesn't close down Mbokani Bezua, as the ball floats over Clark's head. Is this down to the manager’s instructions? Or are our players just that bad or just can't give a rat's ass.

       The confidence maybe low, and a win may change things, but I feel a lot of the blame falls on our captain. Clark has made a couple of mistakes, and Lescott is a lot slower these days, but our captain's ability to control the defense is the major problem.

Richards is awesome at challenging for a long ball in the air, or challenging a forward as he receives a ball with his back to goal. Sadly, his wanting to charge up field, and lack of defensive awareness is killing us. If he had been in charge of the Titanic, it would have sank long before it hit the iceberg.

All the other three defenders, should position themselves off Richards. Defending is a lot about positioning and angles, and not just how strong you may be in the challenge. I have worked with flat back fours for over twenty years, and the only time Villa's defense has looked right is when Richard's hasn't been there. I'm not saying Richards shouldn't be one of our central defenders, I'm just saying he shouldn't be the one controlling it. 1490 games between them, and we looked like they have never played a flat back four before. I am not exonerating the rest of the players for their part, but when you don't have a leader you can rely on, then players start to do their own thing, and it all falls apart.

I'm not blaming Richards for, Lescott's slowness, or Clark's naivety, or Richardson's lack of ability to attack a ball, but I blame him for not being the lighthouse to keep everyone safe. People claimed, he was going to be an England regular for years to come at the age of 17, but his career flounder at Man City. He played with Lescott there, and formed a strong partnership, and friendship, sadly that partnership is now failing because Richards is the leader. I believe the Lescott partnership could be the one that brings a holt to the flow of goals, but only if Richards takes a step back, and hand over the reins to his friend. 

I believe if Richards isn't willing to do that, then it has been shown in recent weeks that Okore is.

Aston Villa - Naughty or Nice

As we move towards the festive season, we will find out if Villa have been naughty, or nice. The next five fixture will show if the Remi has worked some magic on the training field. As we analyze those fixture, we will see if Villa will arrive at the New Year in high spirits.

Southampton (away): In the last six fixtures away to Southampton, Villa have only walked away with one win back in 2013. Delph's late strike secured the win, but with him slithering away to Manchester, do we have someone else who can step into his shoes. Southampton have already beaten Villa twice at the St Mary's stadium in 2015, scoring 7 goals and conceding two.

On the back of three defeats, Southampton must look forward to the team who loves to get struggling tracks back on track. With a weakened Villa defense, and a team poor of form, Villa would take a point right now, even though they need three.

As most Villa fans, we dream every game to be the start of something new, but are frequently let down. Everything is going against Villa and a loss is expected.

Prediction: Draw

Arsenal (home): The Gunners are looking potential champions the season, and Villa fans aren't looking forward to this game. Oozing with talent, on a good day, they could easily put 5 past us. The good thing is, on their very few bad days, they can get beaten by anyone.

This fixture hasn't been kind to Villa, and we have to go back to the December 13th, 1998, when we last beat them at home. A 3-2 victory, over an Arsenal team with Arsenal greats such as Bergkamp, Bould, Dixon, Seaman, and Viera, was something to savior. 

The last three games between the teams have seen Arsenal take victory each time. With 12 goals scored against, and zero for, a defeat looks a certainty.

Prediction: Loss

Newcastle (away): If Newcastle's form continues, Villa maybe facing a team with a new manager. Newcastle at present, are performing as badly as Villa, with Newcastle fans running out of patience with their manager. No need for them to worry, Aston Villa are coming to town, and Villa haven't won there since the 1999/2000 season.

Villa presently prop up the Magpies, and that would not have changed by the time the 19th ticks around. These games are usually very close encounters, except back in 2010/11, when Newcastle slammed their visitors 6-0.

Both defenses have been hemorrhaging goals, and it could be down to who makes the least mistakes to who wins the game. I believe if Villa go with pace up top, they could come away victorious. Newcastle defense is looking weary, while Villa's are making schoolboy errors. Two more weeks, and believe Villa will get it right.

Prediction: Win

West Ham (home): The battle of the Claret and Blues. Over recent years, West Ham have finished higher in the league, and can claim presently to be the stronger of the two. The results between the two teams have bounced back and forth, with a number of draws, and either team being victorious.

Billic has West Ham building on the foundation left by Big Sam. West Ham are presently sitting 8th, and could be fighting for a European place come May. Losing Sakho will be a big loss for the Hammers, and could sway things back in Villa's way. 

Presently with 34 league wins each, both teams will pushing for the victory to take them to 35. Villa will be more desperate for the points, and this will make it a nervy Boxing Day encounter for the home team, in front of their expectant home crowd.

Prediction: Draw

Norwich (away): 2015, at this time will be coming to an end. Villa fans will be praying 2016 brings hope, and a stay of execution.  Norwich have been struggling of late, and are one of the teams Villa will hoped to have caught come May. With five points from the last four games, Villa would have doubled their points for the season. They will still be bottom of the league, but will have greater hope and belief.

This is one of the fixture that has been good to Villa over the last few matches. Victories home and away, will give the players confidence going into this game. With games against Everton, United, and Spurs prior to the Villa game, Norwich could be searching for their first point in four.

I believe Villa will have too much in attack for Norwich to defend, and a strong defensive performance will give the Villans the points.

Prediction: Win

Eight points in December would be a good return for Villa, and keep us intention with the teams at the bottom end of the league. The confidence that this will bring could see Villa break a record in 2016 that is worth breaking. January will roll round, and Villa fans all over the world, will have a greater belief the mighty Claret and Blue will stay ever present in the top division.

Gary Davis

Jack Grealish - A True Claret and Blue?

Jack Grealish - A True Claret and Blue?

        In the Guardian, on the 14th October, 2014, Jack Grealish stated after signing a new four year contract, "I’ve grown up supporting the club. In fact I’ve had a season ticket at Villa since I was four years old and came to every game so this is a big thing for me and my family." Fast forward thirteen months, and the new Aston Villa manager labels Jack, "Unprofessional", as he is dropped from the squad to face Watford, in a must win match. This comes after Jack's latest late night antics, after a weak showing in a 4-0 drubbing at Everton. This wasn't the first time in 2015 that Jack's decision making was questioned.

         During the summer of 2015, Jack was photographed fast asleep in the street, after a late night with his "friends." This is the same summer that England and the Republic of Ireland were fighting for Jack's international commitment. Aston Villa fans, were a little more lenient during the summer, while many are now supporting Garde and his decision to send Jack to practice with the u21s. His actions during a time where "His Boyhood Club", is rock bottom, and needing everyone to pull together, are disloyal and disrespectful to the fans, club and very possibly his family. Kevin Sr. and Jr. have supported their brother as he rises through the ranks at Villa, a penny for their thoughts right now.

        Many Villa fans, including myself are questioning Jack's reasoning, and if he has the strength to rise to the top, or will he allow his success to bring him down. This week, football fans all over the world were celebrating George Best, and the talent he was as a player. Sadly, for George, and his family, his career, and life ended too soon. I'm not saying Jack is on George's path, but who knows where Jack's career and future may end. 

       Addictions and bad choices, have been the fall of many a great man, and even though Jack has every Villa fans dream job, his talents haven't been displayed on a regular basis. He has a long way to go before he is great, consistently good, would be a start. Fans would say Jack has made more of an impact on the pavement, than he has in success at Villa. His performance against Everton was well below par, and was rightly substituted. 

       I'm not looking for Jack to be Aston Villa's savior, but at this time Jack needs to save himself. He needs to learn who he can surround himself with during this time. One of the seven pillars of success in the work place is your social network. A positive one will bring you success, I don't need to tell you what a negative one will do. 

     Jack needs to understand, no matter how much talent you may have, you only get a certain amount of chances to show it. Villa fans give one of their own, a little more leeway, but they know words are cheap. In his own words, "The club to show this faith and trust in me, I’m really appreciative and I’m determined to repay that trust." “I know I have to continue to kick on and push on now. I have to keep developing and progressing and strive to be as good a player as I can possibly be."
      Jack, those words were over a year ago, please tell us how you have kicked on? A good game against Liverpool in a F.A. Cup semi-final, isn't kicking on. You say you love this club, and it's all you ever wanted to do, well it's time you showed it. You are old enough to make good choices, just as you have made bad choices. 

       How much does this club mean to you? How much do your families' sacrifices mean to you? All their support to get you where you are today. When are you going to repay their trust? The club needs your talent now Jack, it needs you to play your part, and help get us out of the mess you have helped put us in.

     Claret and Blue, Jack? Or Bacardi and Coke?

Gary Davis

Villa Fan for 40 years

WWE - The Return of the Light Heavyweight Belt

       Since the WWE Light Heavyweight belt, and the WCW Cruiserweight belt became defunct, it has been a fight for the represented wrestlers to showcase their talent. Since the "Powers-at-Be", decided to make a joke out of the Cruiserweight division, and put the belt on Hornswoggle, the fans have been the ones to suffer.

     September 27th, 2007, Vickie Guerrero, ended Hornswoggle's reign, when she stated his relationship to Vince McMahon, and his diminutive size, could be a detriment to his health. The title had already lost so much status before Hornswoggle became champion. The six-way open where he was victorious, he competed against Jimmy Wang Yang, Shannon Moore, Jamie Noble, Funaki, and Chavo Guerrero. Even though, they were all talented wrestlers in their own right, they very rarely appeared at upper-middle, or middle card status on a regular basis.

      It wasn't always that way, if we look back at the history of the wrestling history, we would see future Heavyweight champions, showcased their talent in the light heavyweight/cruiserweight divisions. In the early days of the WCW Cruiserweight history, we saw Rey Misterio, Chris Jericho, and the late Eddie Guerrero ply their trade in the now defunct division. The crowds had the chance to view the high energy wrestling that many crave for, while the so called "little guys", could put themselves a little higher up the ladder. The WWE needs to use the belt as a stepping stone to a shot to the Heavyweight Championship, use it to see if the crowd can get behind the wrestler, and help push him to higher levels.

         I'm not Vince McMahon, so I don't know if the stories are true, about him wanting to destroy anything he didn't create, but it seems this may have been the case for this division. In November, 2001, the WWF took reigns of the belt, and the cancer set in, the belt headed to a slow and painful death. Rey Misterio, was the only wrestler with high level exposure who was allowed to carry it.

          The WWE have many talented wrestlers, who would love to compete for the gold, knowing that their chance of holding the Heavyweight belt for more than a token time, are limited. Wrestlers such as Stardust, Dolph Ziggler, Sin Cara, Dean Ambrose, Daniel Bryan (inj), Tyson Kidd, Xavier Woods, Neville, Kalisto, Zach Ryder, Kofi Kingston, etc... Yes, Yes, Yes, some of the aforementioned, have been, or will be Heavyweight Champion, but the WWE still loves their big men, Seth Rollins has been the exception of late, but I do believe, he would have lost the belt to Roman Reigns if he hadn't injured his knee. With Rollins injure, they had to find another heel for Reigns to compete against. Instead of elevating Ambrose, and having him turn on Reigns, they give the belt to two-move Sheamus.

          The WWE have the opportunity to use talented wrestler, integrate then into high level story lines, and give the fans another belt to cheer. Being a wrestling fan for most of my 45 years, first in the UK (World of Sport), then finding the WWF in 1987, I want to see more than wrestlers fighting over the Heavyweight belt. The same wrestlers, month after month, year after year, being over exposed, becomes monotonous. 

         I would love to see the belt return to the WWE, and used in a format that Steve Regal will remember. If the belt was fought for, in a best of three format, wrestlers would be able to showcase their finishing moves, and entertain the crowd. Not all fans want to see the slow paced matches that end up in "Suplex City:.

        If the WWE doesn't want to throw it straight back to the main roster, they have a great opportunity with NXT, to give it a trial run. NXT wrestlers are the next generation, and will give more wrestlers a greater chance of exposure. So many talented wrestlers are not allowed to showcase their skills, give them an open door, and I'm sure they will walk through it.

Gary Davis
Forty Year Wrestling Fan